87. GEO...CHINA"S ROLE IN BANGLADESH'S CRISIS. RISE OF ANTI INDIA CHALLENGES.

Possible scenarios for India if Bangladesh fully aligns with China and Pakistan? 

That could show how the region’s balance of power might shift.  

China’s Role in Bangladesh’s Crisis

Political leverage: After Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Younus has recalibrated foreign policy, moving closer to China and Pakistan.  

Strategic concerns: China resented the U.S. pledging $200 million in aid to Bangladesh in September 2024, fearing Dhaka might tilt pro-American. Beijing has since stepped up its own engagement.  

Military & security ties: Reports highlight increased defence cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan, with China seen as a silent backer of this alignment.  

Economic influence: China continues to invest in Bangladesh’s infrastructure and Belt & Road projects, ensuring long-term economic leverage.  

India’s Alarm

Parliamentary warning: India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs flagged China and Pakistan’s growing role in Bangladesh as the “biggest strategic nightmare since the 1971 Liberation War”.  

Security fears: Rising Islamist influence in Bangladesh, coupled with Chinese and Pakistani support, is viewed as a direct threat to India’s eastern border.  

Potential conflict: Reports suggest India is considering “limited conflict pressure tactics” to counter Bangladesh’s shifting alliances.  

Risks Ahead

Regional instability: Bangladesh’s tilt toward China–Pakistan could destabilize South Asia.  

India–Bangladesh conflict: Escalation risks limited clashes or prolonged hostility.  

Great power rivalry: Bangladesh may become a new arena for U.S.–China competition, with India caught in the middle.  

Rise of anti-India sentiment: Political instability and nationalist rhetoric in Bangladesh have fuelled hostility toward India. 

Dhaka’s interim government under Muhammad Younus has taken a more confrontational stance toward India.  

Atrocities on Minorities: India has expressed grave concern over the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh, flagging over 2,900 incidents of violence since August 2024. The recent lynching of a Hindu man, Dipu Chandra Das, sparked massive protests in Indian cities like Kolkata and Delhi.

China is leveraging Bangladesh’s political turmoil to expand its influence, aligning Dhaka closer to Beijing and Islamabad. This is seen in India as the most serious strategic challenge in decades, while the U.S. remains cautious, prioritizing its partnership with India.  

                                                                  ---PENDYALA VASUDEVA RAO

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